Casino
betting systems ... what are they and do they work?
There
are a bunch of casino systems out there, along with plenty of salesmen trying to sell you their systems with
promises that you cannot lose using their secret
(but vigorously advertised!) tried and proven method for
beating the casinos. So do they really work?
Now
aside from Blackjack systems, where the ability to leverage
a knowledge of past play to understand likely future
outcomes actually does afford the skilled player a house
edge (for more details see our page on card
counting, or read about the MIT
Blackjack Team) , systems applying to other casino games
have to be treated with a good deal of skepticism.
I'm not a mathematician, but I am both a cynic and a
realist, and can't help but think that if these individuals
trying to sell you their systems actually had any confidence
that the
systems really worked, then they wouldn't be wasting their
time selling the system, but rather using it to make money
at the casino. And yes while I am a little
mathematically challenged, even I can usually see the fatal
logic flaw in a particular casino game system.
And lets be honest, how many casinos do you know, either
terrestrial or online that lose money? Not many... and
if they do its not because players are winning more often
than not.
So,
having completely taken the wind out of your sails with the
above harsh dose of reality, you're probably thinking why
bother telling us about gambling systems. Well, for
one, so you'll have some insight into various systems and
will be less likely to be duped into paying for one, and
two, because the systems themselves while not necessarily
effective, are quite interesting in their approach.
So,
without further ado, below are brief descriptions of some of
casino gambling's better known betting systems...
-
The
D'Alenbert gambling system
-
The
Martingale gambling system
-
The
Paroli gambling system
-
The
1-3-2-6 gambling system
Under
the D'Alenbert system, a player should raise his or her bet by one unit for each
bet following a losing bet. Conversely, for each bet following a wining
bet, the bet should be lowered by one unit.
Presumably
you make some kind of allowance for a string of winning bets that lowers your
stake to zero!
The
supposed logic behind this system, is that a string of losses will be mitigated
by a higher value winning bet when it eventually comes. This is a
similar approach, albeit far less aggressive than the Martingale system in which
the bet is doubled after each loss.
The
Martingale system is a well known system used in Roulette.
The system dictates that you start with an initial bet on either red or
black ('the original bet'). If your bet wins, you pocket the
winnings and repeat this bet again. If the bet loses, you
double the original bet. If this bet wins, you pocket your
winnings and begin again with the original bet. If you lose again,
you double up again, and continue to double up on successive losing bets
until such time as you win, at which point you pocket your winnings and
start again with your original bet.
The
logic here, is that even after a large string of losing bets in a row,
when you eventually have a win, you will cover all your losing bets and
be ahead by an amount equal to your original bet. This is
illustrated in the below table:
|
Bet number: |
Bet amount: |
Win or Loss |
Net position: |
|
1 |
$5 |
Loss |
- $5 |
|
2 |
$10 |
Loss |
-
$15 |
|
3 |
$20 |
Loss |
-
$35 |
|
4 |
$40 |
Loss |
-
$75 |
|
5 |
$80 |
Loss |
-
$155 |
|
6 |
$160 |
Loss |
-
$315 |
|
7 |
$320 |
Loss |
-
$635 |
|
8 |
$640 |
Win |
$ 5 |
Pundits of
this system argue that you can't lose because eventually you have to
have a winning bet, at which point you are ahead right? This is
correct, providing 2 things don't occur that are the undoing of many a
Martingale player:
1. you reach
the table maximum bet before you get chance to win - eg in the example
above if the table max bet is $500, then you're in trouble after 7
losses in a row, with no way of covering your losses.
2. you run
out of money! You can see from the above table that required bets
climb rapidly, so even if the casino offers a big maximum bet, you'll
need deep pockets to avoid disaster.
A
neat discussion offering a little more detail on Martingale
systems can be found at
Casino
Gambling Online
The
Paroli system employs the reverse logic to the D'Alenbert and Martingale
systems (are you starting to get the feeling these systems are more hope
than science!). It dictates that you raise you bet following a win a and
lower it following a loss.
This
system is a employs a combination of raised and lowed bets on successive
winning bets. The 1-3-2-6 combination signifies the multiple
of your original bet stake that you bet on successive bets in a four bet
series.
So
if you original bet amount is $5, this system suggests you should bet
$5, then $15, then $20, then $60 on successive winning
bets.
This
is another system that falls down in presuming that successive bets are
dependent events.
|
